Artículos
A Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis framework demonstrating the advantages of probabilistic forecasting over deterministic forecasting in terms of flood warning reliability
Despite the significant progress in probabilistic forecasting science in the last two decades, particularly in the quantification of predictive uncertainty (PU), most operational flood early warning systems (FEWSs) continue to be based on deterministic forecasts. Thereupon, additional work is needed to demonstrate the advantages of using PU over deterministic forecasting to enhance the uptake of probabilistic forecasts in flood warning decision-making.
